What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Independiente del Valle and 0.9 from CSD Macará, so Independiente del Valle come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
CSD Macará come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Independiente del Valle to win. Independiente del Valle are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.9), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn CSD Macará a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 65%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
