Fleetwood Town v Everton prediction

What to expect

We expect about 0.5 goals from Fleetwood Town and 1.9 from Everton, so Everton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Everton to win. Everton shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.5-1.9), and we make them about 80% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.