How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Al Masry SC (Draw No Bet) 60%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks tight and low-scoring. Al Masry SC are the stronger side according to the numbers, but both teams are only expected to find the net once or less. That suggests a close contest with few chances.
Recent meetings and the latest results point to a pattern of modest goal totals. The numbers show Al Masry SC averaging a little more than a goal while Al Mokawloon Al Arab are under one. The trend has been a narrow margin, so we expect a similar story this time.
We pick Al Masry SC on a draw-no-bet. The price of 1.49 matches our view of the match. With Al Masry favoured but the draw-no-bet removing the risk of a level result, only a loss for Al Masry would hurt us. Our confidence in this outcome is about 65 %.
For the pick to go wrong Al Mokawloon would need to keep a clean sheet and either hold Al Masry to a draw or score the only goal. If the game opens up and more than two goals are scored, our reading would be off. We still feel fairly sure of our view, but we know a surprise can happen.
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