How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Zamalek SC to win 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Ghazl Al Mahalla host Zamalek SC at their home ground in the Egypt Premier League. Ghazl Al Mahalla sit at the very bottom of the table, 20th out of 20, with just one point from their last four games and a goal difference of minus seven. They are in the relegation zone and only a single point separates them from Asyut Petroleum, who sit just above. Zamalek SC are much higher up, sitting fourth with ten points from four matches and a plus six goal difference. One place above them is Pyramids FC, two points clear, while Modern Sport FC sit just below with the same points. The clash could see Zamalek move closer to the top spots while Ghazl fight to avoid the drop.
Ghazl Al Mahalla have not enjoyed any good results recently. In their last four games they have earned only one point and have been outscored by seven goals overall. Their form shows a team that is struggling to find the net and to keep clean sheets. The run adds up to a season that looks very difficult for them, with the pressure of staying up mounting with each game.
Zamalek SC arrive on a very different note. Their last three matches, whether at home or away, are all wins. They beat Ports 4-0 at home, then beat Abo Qir Semad 2-0 at home, and before that they won 2-1 away at Ports. In those three games they have scored eight goals and let in only one. They kept two clean sheets and two of the three matches featured three or more goals, with both sides scoring in one of them. The most recent 2-1 victory away showed they can score and still win even when they concede. They played just four days ago, so they are coming in on a short turnaround but with confidence.
When the two sides meet, the numbers suggest a clear edge for Zamalek. Ghazl Al Mahalla are expected to score about six-tenths of a goal, while Zamalek are expected to score about one and a half goals. The chance that Ghazl will find the net at all is forty-seven per cent, and the chance they score twice or more drops to thirteen per cent. Zamalek have an eighty-four per cent chance to score and a fifty-two per cent chance to score twice or more. This points to a game where Zamalek are likely to dominate the attack and keep a clean sheet or concede very few.
Our pick is Zamalek SC to win. The price of 1.75 is longer than our own reading of the game, which gives Zamalek about a sixty-two per cent chance to come out on top. Backing Zamalek outright is the straightforward way to go. For this to go wrong, Ghazl would need to find an early goal and hold on, or Zamalek would have to drop points after a short rest. Given the recent form and the statistical edge, we feel Zamalek are the safer choice.
Recent results
Zamalek SC have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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