How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Al Masry SC to win 45%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Al Masry SC host Al Ittihad Alexandria at home in the Egypt Premier League on 15 September 2026. Al Masry sit ninth in the 20-team table with six points from four matches and a neutral goal difference. They are just inside the relegation zone, level on points with both Olympic El Qanah above them and National Bank below them. Al Ittihad sit six places higher in sixth, also on seven points from four games but with a +1 goal difference. The two clubs are separated by only a single point, so a win for either side could move them a place up or down the table. The numbers we have suggest a tight, low-scoring encounter, with Al Masry expected to score a little more than their visitors.
Al Masry’s recent run has been mixed. In their last four fixtures they have drawn 1-1 with a side that sits near the top, then lost 2-0 to a mid-table opponent, followed by a 1-0 win over a fellow relegation-battle team, and most recently they were held 0-0 at home by a club fighting for a European spot. Across those games they have scored two goals and conceded three. The pattern shows they can keep games tight but have struggled to find the net consistently.
Al Ittihad’s form over the same period has been slightly better. They began with a 2-1 victory over a team that finished just above the relegation line, then beat a fellow top-half side 3-2, suffered a 3-0 defeat to Celtic, and most recently bounced back with a 4-1 win over Kilmarnock. That last result was a dominant display, with four goals scored and only one conceded. Overall they have netted ten times while letting in six in four games, indicating they can both score and leak goals.
When these two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be close affairs. The previous meetings have often produced one-goal margins or draws, reflecting the similar quality of the squads. Given the current league positions and the recent form, we expect a similar pattern this time – a low-scoring match where Al Masry’s home advantage and slightly higher expected goal tally give them the edge.
Our pick is Al Masry SC to win. The price of 2.05 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, but the numbers still favour the home side, with an expected 1.3 goals for Al Masry against 0.8 for Al Ittihad. We see a 45 % chance of this result coming true. The price looks good for a side that is only a point behind the team above them and could use the three points to climb out of the relegation zone. The pick would go wrong if Al Ittihad manage to repeat the attacking sharpness they showed against Kilmarnock and score twice, or if Al Masry fail to find the net at all, which the statistics say happens about a quarter of the time. Otherwise, a narrow win for Al Masry looks the cleaner play.
Recent results
Al Masry SC have won four of the last five meetings.
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