What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Al Masry SC and 0.8 from Al Ittihad Alexandria, so Al Masry SC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Al Masry SC come into this on two straight defeats. Al Ittihad Alexandria come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Al Masry SC to win. Al Masry SC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.8), and we make them about 46% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.88, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
