How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Al Ahly SC to win 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Modern Sport FC host Al Ahly SC at their ground in the Egypt Premier League on 29 October 2026. Modern Sport sit fifth in the twenty-team table with thirteen points from seven games and a +3 goal difference. Al Ahly are third with seventeen points and a +8 goal difference. The gap between the two is only two points to the team above Modern Sport and two points to the team below Al Ahly, so both clubs are keen to keep the pressure on the leaders. A win for Modern Sport would move them level with Ceramica Cleopatra, while Al Ahly would pull further ahead of Zamalek and cement a strong challenge for the top spot.
Modern Sport have been in good form lately. In their last eight matches they have won five, drawn one and lost two. The most recent result was a 3-2 loss away to ZED FC. Before that they beat Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI 3-2 at home, then secured a 2-0 home win over National Bank, a 2-0 away victory at Asyut Petroleum, a 2-1 home success against Wadi Degla FC and a 2-0 loss away to Ceramica Cleopatra. All four of their recent home games have been wins, giving them a perfect record at home in that stretch. In those eight games they have scored fourteen goals, let in nine, kept three clean sheets and failed to find the net once.
Al Ahly have not lost in their last eight outings. They have recorded six wins and two draws. Their latest match, just four days ago, was a 4-0 home triumph over Kitara FC. Prior to that they drew 3-3 with Olympic El Qanah FC at home, then beat Kitara FC 2-1 away, defeated Zamalek SC 2-0 away, ran out 5-0 winners at Asyut Petroleum and secured a 2-0 home win over Abo Qir Semad. On the road they have been especially strong, winning three and drawing one in their last four away games. Across those eight fixtures Al Ahly have scored twenty goals, conceded only five and kept five clean sheets.
The two sides have met five times before. Modern Sport have won once, Al Ahly twice and two games have ended in draws. Those encounters have produced an average of 2.8 goals per match. The most recent meeting was a 2-2 draw at Modern Sport’s ground on 9 August 2025. Given the goal averages and the fact that both teams have been scoring regularly, we expect another open game with chances on both sides, but Al Ahly’s stronger attacking numbers suggest they will have the edge.
We pick Al Ahly to win. The price of 1.57 matches our view of the game. Our own chance of this result coming through is about 64 %. Al Ahly are expected to score around 1.8 goals while Modern Sport are likely to manage less than one. For our pick to fail, Modern Sport would need to find the net twice and keep Al Ahly from scoring, which looks unlikely given Al Ahly’s recent form and the low probability of Modern Sport scoring two or more.
Recent results
Al Ahly SC have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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