What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Petrojet-Suez and 0.9 from Tala'ea El Gaish, so Petrojet-Suez come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Petrojet-Suez to win. Petrojet-Suez are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-0.9), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.25, which works out at about 31 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Tala'ea El Gaish only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 40%.