What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Tala'ea El Gaish and 1.0 from ZED FC, so ZED FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Tala'ea El Gaish come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: ZED FC to win. ZED FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.0), and we make them about 39% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 4.00, which works out at about 25 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Tala'ea El Gaish a draw or better. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 39%.
