What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Lech Poznan and 1.1 from Jagiellonia, so Lech Poznan come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Lech Poznan come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Lech Poznan to win. Lech Poznan are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.1), and we make them about 53% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.76, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Jagiellonia to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 53%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
