Rakow v Gornik Zabrze: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 70%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Rakow host Gornik Zabrze at home in the Ekstraklasa on 3 September 2026. Rakow sit lower in the table than their visitors, who have been picking up points in recent weeks. Both clubs have a game only four days old, so fatigue could be a factor. The two sides have met five times before, with Gornik winning three, Rakow one and one draw, and those games have averaged just 1.4 goals. The stakes are modest but a win could lift Rakow out of the relegation zone while Gornik look to keep their push for a European place alive.

Rakow’s last eight matches have been a mixed bag of three wins and five defeats. The most recent result was a 5-2 loss to Jagiellonia at home, followed by a 2-1 defeat away to Cracovia and another 2-1 loss away at Slask Wroclaw. Before that they fell 2-1 at home to Wisla Plock, then turned the tide with a 3-0 victory over Arka Gdynia at home and a 3-1 win away at Piast Gliwice. In those eight games they have scored 13 and let in 14, kept two clean sheets and failed to score once. Six of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in five of them. Their home form in the last five fixtures shows two wins and three defeats.

Gornik Zabrze have been in better shape, recording five wins, one draw and two losses in their last eight outings. Their most recent game was a 3-2 defeat at home to GKS Katowice, but that follows a 2-1 home win over Wisla, a 3-1 away win at Radomiak Radom, a 2-1 home victory over Slask Wroclaw and a 6-2 home thrashing of Radomiak Radom. Earlier they also earned a 1-0 away win at Wisla Plock. Over those eight matches they have scored 16 and conceded 10, kept two clean sheets and have been shut out twice. Five of the games produced three or more goals and both teams scored in five of them. Their last three road trips have yielded two wins and a draw, showing they can pick points away from home.

When the two clubs have met before the games have been low-scoring affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per match. The latest encounter in March saw Gornik win 3-1, but overall the meetings have tended to be tight, with few clear-cut chances. Given Rakow’s recent defensive frailties and Gornik’s ability to score while also keeping games tight, we expect a cagey contest. Both sides have been involved in several three-goal games recently, yet the head-to-head record suggests they will be cautious.

We pick the under 3.5 goals. Our expectation is around 2.5 goals in total, with each side likely to score just over one goal. The price of 1.41 matches our view of the game and looks attractive. For this pick to fail, the match would need to open up dramatically, with both teams finding the net three times or more, which seems unlikely given the recent trends and the low average of past meetings. We feel comfortable with a 70 % chance of the game staying under the 3.5-goal line.