How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Raków host Motor Lublin at the weekend in an Ekstraklasa clash that could move the table a little. Raków sit mid-table, while Motor Lublin are down at 15th of 18, five points from safety after seven games. The Poles are only one point clear of Śląsk Wrocław above them and sit just a point ahead of Wisła Płock below. Both clubs need points – Raków to climb out of a slump and Motor Lublin to stay clear of the relegation zone. The numbers suggest Raków are the stronger side, but the goal expectations (1.9 for Raków, 1.2 for Lublin) also point to an open game with chances on both ends.
Raków have not won in their last eight league outings, losing all six of their most recent defeats. Their run includes a 1-0 loss to Lech Poznań away, a 2-1 loss to Górnik Zabrze at home, a 5-2 defeat to Jagiellonia at home, a 2-1 loss to Cracovia away, a 2-1 setback to Śląsk Wrocław away and a 2-1 reverse to Wisła Płock at home. In those eight games they have scored 12 and let in 15. Only one clean sheet was kept and they failed to find the net once. Seven of the eight matches saw three or more goals and both sides hit the net in six of them. Their last four home fixtures have yielded one win and three defeats.
Motor Lublin come into the game after two straight losses. In their last eight league games they have managed one win, two draws and five defeats. The most recent results are a 3-2 loss to Legia at home, a 2-0 reverse to Piast Gliwice at home, a 1-1 draw with Korona Kielce away, a 1-0 win over GKS Katowice at home, a 3-1 defeat to Pogon Szczecin away and a 2-1 loss to Jagiellonia at home. Over those eight matches they have scored eight and conceded 17. They kept a single clean sheet and have been shut out twice. Five of the games produced three or more goals and both teams scored in five of those encounters. Their last four away outings contain two draws and two defeats.
The two clubs have met four times before. Raków have won twice, Motor Lublin have not won, and the other two games ended in draws. Those meetings have averaged 2.5 goals a game. The most recent meeting on 12 April 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw, showing that both sides can find the net against each other. Given the recent patterns – many high-scoring games and frequent double-sided scoring – this fixture looks likely to produce goals on both ends rather than a clean-sheet result.
Our pick is both teams to score. The goal expectations of 1.9 for Raków and 1.2 for Motor Lublin suggest each side has a decent chance of hitting the net. The price of 1.54 is shorter than our own reading, which makes it attractive. We think there is about a 58 % chance of both sides finding the back of the net. For the pick to fail, both defenses would have to hold firm and produce a shut-out, or one side would need to be shut out completely – outcomes that look unlikely given the recent goal-rich history of both clubs.
Recent results
Rakow have won two of the last four meetings, with two drawn.
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