How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Brann (Draw No Bet) 75%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Brann and 1.1 from Lillestrom, so Brann come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Brann (Draw No Bet). Brann are favoured here (xG 2.0-1.1), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Brann defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Brann have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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