How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Sarpsborg 08 and 1.4 from Valerenga, so Sarpsborg 08 come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.4 goals (xG 2.1-1.4), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 78%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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