What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Sarpsborg 08 and 1.4 from Valerenga, so Sarpsborg 08 come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sarpsborg 08 (Draw No Bet). Sarpsborg 08 are favoured here (xG 2.1-1.4), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Sarpsborg 08 defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Valerenga win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 68%: a lean, not a lock.
