How it turned out
The game finished with 2 goals. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: HamKam to win. HamKam are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-1.3), and we make them about 66% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓HamKam have won one of their last five.
✓Aalesund have not won any of their last five.
Recent meetings
29 May 2026Aalesund 2 - 2 HamKam
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Aalesund to spoil this. At around 66% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
