HamKam v Molde: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Molde to score 2 or fewer 76%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

HamKam host Molde at their home ground on 13 September in the Eliteserien. HamKam sit 10th out of 16 with 23 points after 20 games and a goal difference of minus 14. They are just two points behind Sarpsborg 08 and one point ahead of Vålerenga, so every point matters for staying clear of the relegation zone. Molde are much higher, third with 36 points and a plus-13 goal difference, sitting in the European qualification places. Viking sit above them, while Tromsø are a point behind. Both teams are looking to improve their positions, but the stakes are very different.

HamKam have struggled in their last eight matches, winning only once, drawing twice and losing five times. Their most recent results were a 4-0 loss away to Rosenborg, a 2-2 draw at home with Kristiansund, a 3-0 defeat away to Brann, a 1-1 draw at home against Aalesund, a 3-0 win away at Vålerenga, and a 1-0 loss away to Sarpsborg 08. In those eight games they have scored seven goals and let in 18. They kept just one clean sheet and failed to find the net in four matches. The last three home games have produced two draws and one loss, and they have gone four games without a win.

Molde arrive on a much better run. In their last eight fixtures they have won five, drawn once and lost twice. The most recent results are a 2-0 home win over KFUM Oslo, a thrilling 4-3 away victory at Vålerenga, another 4-3 win away at Vålerenga IF, a 3-2 home win over Tromsø, a 2-1 away loss to Kristiansund and a 3-3 home draw with Sarpsborg 08. Those four straight wins give them confidence, and on the road they have won three of their last five trips. Over the eight games they have scored 22 and conceded 17, keeping only one clean sheet. Their last match was seven days ago, a high-scoring 3-3 draw that showed they can both create and allow goals.

When the two sides meet, Molde have the clear edge. In the last five meetings Molde have won four times and HamKam once, with no draws. The games have averaged 2.6 goals. The most recent encounter on 12 April ended 4-1 for Molde. Given Molde’s stronger attack and the fact that both teams have been involved in many high-scoring games, we expect another open contest with chances at both ends.

We pick Molde to score two or fewer goals. Our view is that Molde will likely find the net, but the price of 1.47 is longer than we think the match will be. We see a 76 % chance that Molde finish with at most two goals, which matches our own reading of the game. For the bet to fail, Molde would need to score three or more, which would require a very loose defensive display from HamKam or an unusually clinical day for Molde’s attackers. The price looks good for the risk, and we feel comfortable with the selection.