How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Lillestrom to score 2 or fewer 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Lillestrom and 1.4 from Valerenga, so Lillestrom come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Lillestrom to score 2 or fewer. This is about Lillestrom's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 2.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 73%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Lillestrom have won four of the last five meetings.
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