How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Ajax and 1.0 from Heerenveen, so Ajax come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.0 goals in total (xG 2.0-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 80%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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