What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Ajax and 1.0 from Heerenveen, so Ajax come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.0 goals in total (xG 2.0-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 80%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell.
