How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Cambuur to score 1 or fewer 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Cambuur and 2.0 from AZ Alkmaar, so AZ Alkmaar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Cambuur to score 1 or fewer. This is about Cambuur's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 73%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
AZ Alkmaar have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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