How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made FCI Levadia to win 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.8 goals from FCI Levadia and 0.7 from Harju Jalgpallikool, so FCI Levadia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
FCI Levadia come into this on three straight wins. Harju Jalgpallikool come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FCI Levadia to win. FCI Levadia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.7-0.7), and we make them about 79% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
FCI Levadia have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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