How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 5.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from KI Klaksvik and 1.4 from Lech Poznan, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Lech Poznan come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Lech Poznan to win. Lech Poznan shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.3), and we make them about 39% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn KI Klaksvik a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 39%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.