How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
This game looks like it could go either way, with not much between the two teams. We think Anderlecht are slightly stronger, but it's a close call. The numbers suggest Anderlecht will score around 1.5 goals and PAOK will score around 1.3 goals, so it should be a tight match.
Looking at the teams' recent league games, Anderlecht have won their last two games, while PAOK have lost their last three. This might give Anderlecht a bit of an edge, but we're not reading too much into it. We're focusing on the fact that Anderlecht are at home and have a slight advantage on the numbers.
We think Anderlecht will win this game, and the price of 2.85 looks good to us. We make Anderlecht around 37% to win, which is close to the price available. This makes us think that taking Anderlecht to win is a good choice, rather than looking for a bigger price on another outcome.
For our pick to go wrong, PAOK would need to turn their recent form around and cause an upset. While this is possible, we think Anderlecht's slight advantage and home edge make them the more likely winners. We're not extremely confident, but we think our pick is the most likely outcome, and the price reflects that.
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