What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Omonia Nicosia and 2.3 from Benfica, so Benfica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Omonia Nicosia come into this on four straight wins. Benfica come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Benfica to win. Benfica shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.3), and we make them about 65% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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