What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Sturm Graz and 1.8 from Marseille, so Marseille come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Marseille or Draw. This covers Marseille or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Sturm Graz have won two of their last five.
✓Marseille have won one of their last five.
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