What to expect
We expect about 2.5 goals from Carlisle and 1.4 from Tamworth, so Carlisle come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.9 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Carlisle to win. Carlisle are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-1.4), and we make them about 63% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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