What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Fylde and 2.3 from Luton, so Luton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Luton to win. Luton shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-2.3), and we make them about 66% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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