How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals and the game finished with 3. We made NSÍ Runavík to win 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from B68 Toftir and 2.6 from NSÍ Runavík, so NSÍ Runavík come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: NSÍ Runavík to win. NSÍ Runavík shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.6), and we make them about 73% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
NSÍ Runavík have won five of the last five meetings.
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