How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Víkingur to win 70%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Víkingur and 0.8 from EB/Streymur, so Víkingur come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Víkingur come into this on two straight wins. EB/Streymur come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Víkingur to win. Víkingur are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.8), and we make them about 72% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Víkingur have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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