What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Olympiakos and 0.6 from OFI Crete, so Olympiakos come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Olympiakos to win. Olympiakos are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.6), and we make them about 74% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
OFI Crete only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 74%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
