How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made AEK to win 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.6 goals from Asteras Tripolis and 1.9 from AEK, so AEK come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
AEK come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: AEK to win. AEK shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.8), and we make them about 67% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
AEK have won five of the last five meetings.
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