What to expect
We expect about 0.7 goals from Asteras Tripolis and 1.8 from AEK, so AEK come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Asteras Tripolis come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: AEK to win. AEK shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.8), and we make them about 66% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Asteras Tripolis to spoil this. We make it about 66% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
