How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Györi ETO to win 59%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Györi ETO and 0.9 from Vasas Budapest, so Györi ETO come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Györi ETO come into this on two straight wins. Vasas Budapest come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Györi ETO to win. Györi ETO are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.9), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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