How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 8. Both teams scored. We made ÍA Akranes to win 55%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from ÍA Akranes and 1.4 from Keflavík, so ÍA Akranes come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Keflavík come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: ÍA Akranes to win. ÍA Akranes are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.4), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.53, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Keflavík have won four of the last five meetings.
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