How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Valur to win 45%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar and 1.8 from Valur, so Valur come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Valur come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Valur to win. Valur shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.8), and we make them about 47% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.80, which works out at about 36 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Valur have won three of the last five meetings.
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