How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Fram Reykjavík to win 39%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Keflavík and 1.7 from Fram Reykjavík, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Keflavík come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Fram Reykjavík to win. Fram Reykjavík shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.7), and we make them about 40% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Fram Reykjavík have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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