How it turned out
We projected about 4.5 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Víkingur Reykjavík to win 52%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from KR Reykjavík and 2.7 from Víkingur Reykjavík, so Víkingur Reykjavík come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Víkingur Reykjavík to win. Víkingur Reykjavík shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.9-2.7), and we make them about 54% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.20, which works out at about 45 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Víkingur Reykjavík have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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