Aruba v Anguilla prediction

What to expect

Aruba host Anguilla in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 4 October 2026. Aruba sit second of three in the group with six points from two games and a +3 goal difference. One place above them sits Antigua and Barbuda, level on points. Anguilla are third, with no points from three matches and a –10 goal difference, sitting six points behind Aruba. The two sides are only one place apart in the table, but the gap in points is large. Both teams will be looking to improve their standing, but Aruba have more to lose if they slip.

Aruba have been in good form. In their two games they beat their opponents 3-0 and 2-1, giving them six points and a +3 goal difference. Those results show they can score and keep a clean sheet. The recent wins add up to a solid run that should give them confidence at home.

Anguilla come into this game on three straight defeats. Their most recent match was a 3-0 loss at home to Antigua and Barbuda. Before that they fell 2-0 at home to Aruba, and three games earlier they were beaten 5-0 away by Antigua and Barbuda. In those three games they have not scored a single goal and have let in ten. The defeats came in quick succession, with the last game only three days ago, so they are on a short turnaround and will be looking for a spark.

The two teams have met before, with Aruba winning 2-0 at home in the most recent encounter. That result suggests Aruba have the edge when they play on their own ground. Given Aruba’s recent scoring record and Anguilla’s inability to find the net, we expect another open game with chances at both ends, but the balance will be heavily in Aruba’s favour.

Our pick is Aruba to win. The price of 1.05 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, but the numbers show Aruba averaging about 3.6 goals while Anguilla average less than one. The chance Aruba score at all is 97 % and the chance they score twice or more is 86 %. Anguilla’s chance to score at all is only 48 % and to score twice or more just 15 %. If Aruba fail to score, the price would look better, but that would require a very rare defensive display from Anguilla. All things considered, we see a high probability of an Aruba victory and think the price is worth taking.

Recent meetings