How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Bulgaria to win 54%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Bulgaria and 0.8 from Luxembourg, so Bulgaria come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Bulgaria to win. Bulgaria are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.8), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.36, which works out at about 42 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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