Greece v Germany: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Germany or Draw 77%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Greece host Germany in the Nations League on 4 October. Greece sit top of their group with seven points from three games and a +2 goal difference. Germany are third with four points and a +1 goal difference. The table is tight – the Netherlands sit just one point above Germany and two points behind Greece, while Serbia are four points behind the Germans. A win for Greece would put them three points clear at the summit, while a German victory would lift them into the chase for the second spot and keep their relegation worries at bay.

Greece come into this match unbeaten in their last three outings. Their most recent game was a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands at home, followed by a 1-0 away win over Germany and a 2-1 away victory against Serbia. In those three games they have scored five goals and let in three, keeping one clean sheet. Two of the matches produced three or more goals and both sides found the net in each of those games. The Greeks have only had three days to recover, so fatigue could be a factor, but the run shows they can both score and defend when needed.

Germany’s form over the same period is more mixed. They began with a 2-0 home win over Serbia, then suffered a 1-0 home loss to Greece, and most recently drew 1-1 away at the Netherlands. Across those three fixtures the Germans have scored three times and conceded two, keeping one clean sheet but also failing to find the net in the defeat to Greece. Like the Greeks, they have only had three days to rest before this encounter, meaning both sides will be managing a short turnaround.

We back Germany or a draw at 1.25. The price is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, so the selection gives us a safety net while still favouring the stronger side. Our reading of the numbers suggests a total of three goals, with Germany slightly ahead in expected scoring. For our pick to go wrong, Greece would need to win outright or the match would have to finish with a very low scoreline, such as 0-0 or 1-0 to Greece. If the Greeks manage to keep a clean sheet and score, the draw could also slip away. All things considered, the price looks good for a sensible way to back the lean.