What to expect
We expect about 2.7 goals from Guyana and 0.9 from Dominica, so Guyana come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Guyana come into this on three straight wins. Dominica come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Guyana to win. Guyana are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.7-0.9), and we make them about 82% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.15, which works out at about 87 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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