Kazakhstan v Moldova: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Kazakhstan (Draw No Bet) 79%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We meet in the Nations League on 2 October, with Kazakhstan hosting Moldova. Both teams are looking to climb the table, but the numbers show Kazakhstan as the clear favourite. Their expected goal tally is 1.8 compared with Moldova’s 0.9, and they have an 85 % chance of finding the net at least once. Moldova’s odds of scoring are just over half that, and they are far less likely to hit the net twice. In short, the stakes are modest but the balance is heavily tipped toward the home side.

Kazakhstan have been on a decent run lately. They beat their previous opponent 2-0, then followed that with a 3-1 victory, and most recently they edged a 1-0 win. Those three games give them six goals scored and only one conceded. The run shows a side that can both attack and keep a clean sheet, and it builds confidence heading into this match.

Moldova’s recent form is less encouraging. They suffered a 3-0 loss to Celtic, then fell 4-1 to Kilmarnock, and most recently they were beaten 2-0. The last result was a narrow defeat, but the team still failed to score. Over the three games they have managed just one goal while conceding seven. The pattern suggests they are struggling to find the back of the net and are vulnerable at the back.

When these two sides have met before, the games have usually been low-scoring affairs, with the home team often coming out on top. Given the current expectations – 1.8 goals for Kazakhstan and 0.9 for Moldova – we anticipate a match with a few chances but not a goal fest. Kazakhstan should have enough quality to break through, while Moldova will find it hard to create many opportunities.

Our pick is Kazakhstan on a draw-no-bet. The price of 1.37 looks generous compared with our reading of the game. We think Kazakhstan will either win or, at worst, draw, which would return the stake. For this to go wrong, Moldova would need to score twice and keep Kazakhstan from scoring, or pull off a surprise clean sheet win. Both scenarios feel unlikely, and we give our pick a 79 % chance of success.