What to expect
Morocco host Mali in an international friendly on 4 October 2026. Both teams are using the match to test players rather than chase points, but the table still shows Morocco a clear favourite on paper. The goal expectations are 1.5 for Morocco and 0.6 for Mali, giving the game an overall average of two goals. That suggests a tight, low-scoring encounter, with Morocco more likely to find the net than the visitors.
Morocco have been busy lately. They beat a neighbouring side 2-0, then drew 1-1 with a North African rival, and followed that with a 3-1 victory over a West African team. Those three results give them six goals scored and two conceded in the last three games. The run shows they can create chances and keep the defence reasonably tight.
Mali’s recent form tells a different story. They lost 3-0 to a Celtic club side, then suffered a 4-1 defeat at the hands of Kilmarnock, and most recently managed a 2-2 draw against a Central African nation. The draw was a hard-fought game where they equalised late, but they still only scored two goals while conceding seven in the last three outings. The pattern points to defensive frailties and a limited ability to score.
When the two nations have met before, the games have been close affairs, with few goals on either side. Given the current goal expectations and the recent form of both sides, we expect another low-scoring match. Morocco should have the edge in creating chances, while Mali will struggle to break down a defence that has only let in two goals in the last three games for Morocco.
Our pick is Morocco to win. The price on offer is 1.38, which is shorter than we feel the game deserves. We see Morocco as the stronger side on the numbers, about 1.5 goals to Mali’s 0.6, and we give them roughly a 66 % chance to come out on top. The price looks good for a win, and the only way it could go wrong is if Mali manage to surprise with a clean sheet and a goal, or if Morocco fail to convert the 81 % chance they have to score at all. All things considered, backing Morocco looks the cleaner play.
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