Netherlands v Serbia: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Netherlands to win 79%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.5 goals from Netherlands and 0.9 from Serbia, so Netherlands come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Serbia come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Netherlands to win. Netherlands are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.9), and we make them about 80% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.18, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.