Portugal v Norway: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.2 goals from Portugal and 1.2 from Norway, so Portugal come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Portugal come into this on three straight wins. Norway come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Portugal (Draw No Bet). Portugal are favoured here (xG 2.2-1.2), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Portugal defeat beats you.

We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.