How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Republic of Ireland or Draw 81%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Republic of Ireland host Israel in a UEFA Nations League clash on 4 October 2026. The Irish sit third in a four-team group with four points from three games and a +2 goal difference. They are just three points ahead of Kosovo and three points clear of Israel, who sit bottom with a single point and a –5 goal difference. Both sides are fighting to avoid the relegation places, so a slip could push either team into danger. The numbers suggest Ireland are the stronger side, with an expected 1.6 goals compared with Israel’s 1.1.
Ireland’s recent form has been mixed. In their last three matches they drew 2-2 with Austria at home, beat Israel 3-0 away and lost 1-0 to Kosovo away. That run gives them five goals scored and three conceded. They kept one clean sheet against Kosovo and failed to find the net against Austria. Two of those games produced three or more goals, while only the Austria game saw both sides score.
Israel have struggled in the same period. Their latest three fixtures produced a 0-0 draw with Kosovo at home, a 3-0 loss to Ireland at home and a 3-1 defeat to Austria away. They have managed just one goal while conceding six. They kept a clean sheet against Kosovo but failed to score in the other two games. Like Ireland, Israel are playing on a short turnaround, having taken the field only three days ago.
The two teams have already met this campaign, with Ireland winning 3-0 at home. That result shows Ireland’s ability to dominate Israel when they are on the better day. Given the recent scores, we can expect a low-scoring affair with both sides looking to avoid another heavy defeat. Ireland will try to build on their earlier win, while Israel will be hoping to tighten up at the back after a goalless draw.
We back Republic of Ireland or a draw at odds of 1.30. The price is longer than our own reading, which makes it an attractive offer. Ireland have an 82 % chance of scoring at all and a 50 % chance of getting two or more goals, while Israel’s chances are lower at 61 % and 25 % respectively. The pick should work unless Ireland fail to find the net or Israel pull off a surprise win. If Ireland score but the game ends in a draw, our selection still succeeds. The price looks good for the safety net it provides.
Recent results
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