Wales v Denmark: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Denmark or Draw 77%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Wales host Denmark in a UEFA Nations League clash on 4 October 2026. Both teams have three points from three matches, but Wales sit bottom of the group while Denmark are second. Wales sit in the relegation places with a –2 goal difference, just one point behind Norway who are a place above them. Denmark sit in the promotion places with a –1 goal difference, six points behind Portugal and level on points with Norway below them. A win for Wales could lift them out of the drop zone, while Denmark need at least a point to keep their hopes of moving up alive.

Wales have played three games in their recent run, the most recent being a 2-1 win over Norway at home. Before that they fell 2-0 to Denmark away and then lost 1-0 to Portugal away. In those three matches they have scored two goals and let in four. They failed to find the net in two of the games and only one match produced three or more goals, a game in which both sides scored. The side played just three days ago, so fatigue may be a factor.

Denmark’s last three fixtures show a mixed picture. They began with a 4-2 loss to Portugal at home, then turned the tables on Wales with a 2-0 victory at the same venue, and most recently went down 3-2 to Norway away. Across those three outings Denmark have scored six and conceded seven. They kept a clean sheet once and were involved in two high-scoring games, both of which saw goals from each side. Like Wales, Denmark also played only three days ago, meaning both teams are on a short turnaround.

The two sides have already met this campaign, with Denmark beating Wales 2-0 at home. That result gave Denmark the edge and suggests a game where the visitors can impose themselves. Wales managed to score against Denmark in their earlier encounter, but only managed a single goal. Given the recent form – Wales scoring just two goals in three games and Denmark finding the net six – we can expect a low-scoring affair with both teams likely to find the net at least once.

Our pick is Denmark or a draw at odds of 1.30. The price matches our reading of the game and gives a safety net if the match ends level. Denmark have a 77 % chance of scoring and a 43 % chance of scoring twice, while Wales have a 60 % chance of scoring at all. The price looks good for a side that is statistically stronger. The pick would go wrong if Wales manage to keep a clean sheet and score twice, or if Denmark fail to find the net, but the odds of those scenarios are low. We feel comfortable backing the lean with this broader option.