How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Draw 34%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Al Karkh and 1.1 from Duhok, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Draw. There is very little between these two (xG 1.1-1.1), and a share of the spoils is a real possibility at around 35%. When sides are this evenly matched, the draw is worth respecting.
We put the chance of that landing at about 34 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.10, which works out at about 32 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
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