How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Draw 34%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Erbil and 1.1 from Al-Karma, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Al-Karma come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Draw. There is very little between these two (xG 1.0-1.1), and a share of the spoils is a real possibility at around 35%. When sides are this evenly matched, the draw is worth respecting.
We put the chance of that landing at about 34 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.10, which works out at about 32 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Erbil have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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