Al-Mosul v Al Quwa Al Jawiya prediction

What to expect

Al-Mosul host Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home in the Iraq Stars League on 7 October. Both clubs sit in the lower half of the table. Al-Mosul are 14th with eight points from eight games and a –3 goal difference. One place above them is Ghaz Al-Shamal SC on the same points, while Al Karkh sit just below with one point less. Al Quwa Al Jawiya are 12th, also on eight points but with a slightly better –1 goal difference. Zakho sit a spot above them with one point more and Ghaz Al-Shamal SC sit just below on equal points. The two sides are close in points but Al Quwa Al Jawiya have the better goal record, and a win or draw could lift them a place higher while Al-Mosul would need a result to avoid slipping further.

Al-Mosul have not won in their last three matches. Their most recent game was a 1-0 loss to Al Naft at home. Before that they fell 2-1 away to Zakho and 3-0 away to Newroz. In those three games they have scored only one goal and let in six. They failed to find the net in two of the three outings. Two of the matches featured three or more goals, but only one saw both sides score. Their last appearance was 19 days ago, and the run of defeats leaves them looking for a spark.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya also come into this fixture without a win in three. The latest result was a 1-1 draw with Diyala at home. Earlier they lost 1-0 away to Neftchi Fargona and 1-0 at home to Al Zawraa. Across those three games they have scored just one goal while conceding three. Like Al-Mosul they have been shut out in two of the three matches. None of the three games produced three or more goals, and only the draw against Diyala saw both sides get on the scoresheet. Their most recent match was 18 days ago, and the draw offers a small sign of life after two defeats.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be low-scoring affairs. Both sides have struggled to find the net in recent weeks, and the recent form suggests another tight contest. Al-Mosul have managed only one goal in their last three, while Al Quwa Al Jawiya have also scored just once. The pattern points to a match where a single goal could decide the outcome, but a draw is also a realistic possibility given the defensive habits shown by both teams.

We back Al Quwa Al Jawiya or a draw at a price of 1.26. The price sits close to our own reading of the game. Al Quwa Al Jawiya are the stronger side on the numbers, and they have a slightly better goal difference. Their chance of getting at least one goal is 78 percent, compared with 60 percent for Al-Mosul. The price gives us a short way to back the lean while still covering a draw, which is sensible given the recent low-scoring trend. For our pick to fail, Al-Mosul would need to win, which looks unlikely given their three straight defeats and lack of goals. If the game stays tight and Al Quwa Al Jawiya manage a goal, our selection should be right.