What to expect
Duhok host Al Zawraa at home in the Iraq Stars League on 8 October. Duhok sit ninth in the 20-team table with nine points from eight games and a neutral goal difference. They are just one point ahead of Diyala below them and one point behind Al-Jolan SC above them, so a win would push them into the safe middle of the table. Al Zawraa sit second with eighteen points and a strong +12 goal difference. They sit two points behind Al-Karma in third and one point ahead of Erbil in fourth, meaning a victory would tighten the chase for the top spot. The clash is essentially a test of whether the league leaders can keep their momentum against a side fighting for stability.
Our pick is Al Zawraa or a draw. The price of 1.32 is longer than what we feel the game will produce, giving us a little extra safety. The numbers suggest a tight, low-scoring affair, with an average of just over two goals expected and Duhok’s chance to score at all only at 54 %. Al Zawraa are more likely to find the net, with a 73 % chance, and they also have a decent chance of scoring twice. We think Al Zawraa will at least hold their own, and a draw is a realistic fallback. The price looks good for this outcome and we see an 81 % chance of it landing. It would go wrong only if Duhok suddenly produce a burst of goals and win outright, or if the match ends with no goals at all, leaving Al Zawraa without a strike.
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