How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Al Zawraa to win 45%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Al-Mosul host Al Zawraa at home in the Iraq Stars League on 3 September. Al-Mosul sit fourth in a 20-team table with seven points from four games and a +2 goal difference. One place above them is Al-Karma with eight points, while Al Minaa sit just below on the same points. Al Zawraa are second, also on eight points but with a much stronger +8 goal difference. Erbil sit above them with two points more, and Al-Karma sit just behind. The match could tighten the race for the top spots, and a win for Al Zawraa would pull them level on points with the leaders.
Al-Mosul have played three recent league games, two at home and one away. Their newest result was a 2-0 loss away to Al Shorta. Before that they beat Karbalaa 3-0 at home and earlier beat Diyala 2-1, also at home. In those three games they have scored five goals and let in three. They kept one clean sheet against Karbalaa and failed to score in the loss to Al Shorta. Two of the three matches produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in the Diyala game.
Al Zawraa come into the game on the back of two straight victories. Their most recent win was a 4-0 home triumph over Zakho, and before that they also won 4-0 at home against Naft Maysan. Their third recent result was a 1-1 draw away to Karbalaa. Over those three fixtures they have scored nine goals and conceded just one, keeping two clean sheets. The draw with Karbalaa showed they can still be hit, but the two big wins underline their attacking power. Their last match was five days ago, giving them a slightly longer rest than Al-Mosul.
When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to have a few goals and both teams usually find the net. This pattern fits the numbers we have for the upcoming clash, where we expect about 0.9 goals for Al-Mosul and 1.3 for Al Zawraa, roughly two goals in total. The recent form of both clubs suggests a game that could see a couple of chances, but Al Zawraa’s stronger defence and sharper attack make them the more likely side to finish ahead.
We pick Al Zawraa to win. The price of 1.98 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, but it still offers a decent return for a side that looks stronger on the numbers. Our chance of this result is about 45 %. For Al Zawraa to drop points they would need to be caught out by a rare defensive lapse, and Al-Mosul would have to rediscover the sharpness they showed against Karbalaa. If Al Zawraa concede early and cannot find a second, the pick could go wrong. Otherwise the odds look good for an away win.
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