What to expect
Al-Mosul host Al Zawraa at home in the Iraq Stars League on 3 September. Al-Mosul sit fourth in the twenty-team table with seven points from four games and a +2 goal difference. They are one point behind Al-Karma in third place and level on points with Al Minaa in fifth. Al Zawraa are second with eight points, a +8 goal difference and sit two points behind leaders Erbil. A win for Al-Mosul would close the gap to the teams above them, while Al Zawraa look to keep the pressure on Erbil and maintain their challenge for the title.
Al-Mosul have played three matches in their recent run, the most recent being a 2-0 loss away to Al Shorta. Before that they beat Karbalaa 3-0 at home and then edged Diyala 2-1, also at home. In these three games they have scored five goals and let in three. They kept one clean sheet against Karbalaa and failed to find the net in the defeat to Al Shorta. Two of the three fixtures produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in the win over Diyala. The side played just four days ago, so they are coming in on a short turnaround.
Al Zawraa arrive on the back of two straight victories. They hammered Zakho 4-0 at home and then repeated the scoreline against Naft Maysan, also at home. Their last game before this trip was a 1-1 draw away to Karbalaa. Over those three matches Al Zawraa have scored nine goals while conceding only one, and they have kept two clean sheets. Two of the three games featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in the draw with Karbalaa. Their most recent performance was a dominant home win, showing they can create and finish chances in abundance.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to produce a fair amount of scoring, with both sides finding the net in at least one encounter. Given Al Zawraa’s higher goal average and stronger defence in the last three matches, the fixture looks likely to favor the visitors. Al-Mosul have shown they can score but also have struggled to keep a clean sheet against stronger opposition. The numbers suggest a modest total of just over two goals, with Al Zawraa slightly ahead.
We pick Al Zawraa to win. The price of 1.98 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, but it still offers a decent return for a side that has scored nine and let in only one in their last three outings. The odds reflect a roughly 45 % chance of success, which matches our own view that Al Zawraa are the better side. For this pick to go wrong, Al-Mosul would need to rediscover the sharpness they showed against Karbalaa and Diyala and manage to hold Al Zawraa scoreless, something that has not happened in their recent form. If Al Zawraa keep their defensive shape and continue to find the net, they should take all three points.
One thing to watch
Al-Mosul only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 47%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
