How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Al-Karma to win 44%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Diyala host Al-Karma in the Iraq Stars League on 3 September. Diyala sit eighth out of twenty, five points from four games, with a neutral goal difference. Al-Karma are third, also on four games but with eight points and a +3 goal difference. The table is tight around them – Al-Naft sit just above Diyala, one point ahead, while Al-Talaba are level on points just below. Al-Karma sit one place above Al-Zawraa and one below Al-Mosul. Both teams are looking to improve their positions, and the match could shift the middle of the table.
Diyala have not won in their last three outings. Their most recent game was a 3-3 draw with Al-Jolan SC at home. Before that they drew 2-2 away at Zakho and lost 2-1 away to Al-Mosul. Those three results give them six goals scored and seven conceded. Every game featured three or more goals and both sides found the net each time. The home side come into this fixture on two consecutive draws and have not tasted victory in four matches.
Al-Karma arrive on a better run. In their last three they have won two and drawn one, remaining unbeaten. They beat Karbalaa 2-0 at home, then drew 1-1 away at Al Kahrabaa, and most recently beat Al Shorta 2-1 at home. Across those games they have scored five and let in two, keeping a clean sheet in the win over Karbalaa. The win over Al Shorta was a tight affair, with the visitors taking the lead before holding on for the three points. Al-Karma played just four days ago, so they will be on a short turnaround.
Our pick is Al-Karma to win. The numbers suggest a low-scoring, tight contest, with an expectation of about 0.8 goals for Diyala and 1.2 for Al-Karma. That makes Al-Karma the stronger side on paper. The price of 1.75 is shorter than our reading, which gives Al-Karma roughly a 44 % chance to win. Backing them outright is the simplest option. For the result to go the other way Diyala would need to find a way to score more than one goal and keep a clean sheet, which has not happened in their recent games. If they manage that, the upset could be real, but the odds do not favour that scenario.
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